Pre-Mortem Analysis

Learning Objective

Participants will learn to use prospective hindsight to identify hidden project risks, overcome optimism bias, and develop proactive mitigation strategies before problems occur.

How It Works

The Pre-Mortem Process:

1. Set the Scene (5 min)
   Facilitator announces: "Imagine it's 6 months from now. This project has failed spectacularly. Your job is to figure out what went wrong."

2. Silent Brainstorm (10 min)
   Each person silently writes ALL reasons the project failed. No idea is too unlikely. Focus on systemic issues, not blame.

3. Share & Cluster (10 min)
   Go around the room sharing one failure at a time. Group similar items. Continue until all ideas are shared.

4. Prioritize (5 min)
   Vote on failures by: (a) likelihood, and (b) impact. Each person gets 3-5 votes.

5. Develop Mitigations (10 min)
   For the top 3-5 risks, brainstorm specific preventive actions.

6. Assign Owners (5 min)
   Each mitigation gets a responsible owner and deadline.

Rules:
- Embrace pessimism—it's productive here
- No defending the plan during brainstorming
- Focus on "what" failed, not "who" failed
- Every failure mode deserves consideration

Example Scenarios

AI will generate scenarios like these, customized for your context:

• Software: A major product launch fails because infrastructure couldn't handle the load
• Healthcare: A new patient portal rollout is abandoned after nurses refuse to use it
• Marketing: A rebranding campaign backfires, causing significant customer confusion
• Manufacturing: A new production line misses deadline by 3 months, losing a key contract
• Consulting: A strategic initiative fails because stakeholders were never truly aligned