Assumption Mapping
Surface and stress-test hidden assumptions
Every plan rests on assumptions—about customers, markets, technology, and team capabilities. Most stay invisible until they prove false. Assumption Mapping makes them explicit, then systematically tests which ones are riskiest. Used by startups to validate business models and by enterprises to de-risk major initiatives, this technique prevents the painful discovery that your brilliant strategy was built on shaky foundations.
Ready to customize for your team?
AI will generate a workshop tailored to your industry, roles, and challenges
Learning Objective
Participants will learn to identify hidden assumptions underlying plans, assess which assumptions carry the most risk, and design lightweight experiments to validate critical assumptions before committing resources.
How It Works
The Assumption Mapping Process:
1. State the Plan (5 min)
Clearly articulate the initiative, strategy, or decision being examined.
2. Generate Assumptions (10 min)
Brainstorm ALL assumptions the plan depends on. Ask:
- "For this to work, what must be TRUE about..."
• Our customers?
• Our capabilities?
• The market?
• Our competitors?
• The technology?
• The timing?
• Our resources?
3. Map on Risk Matrix (10 min)
Plot each assumption on a 2x2 grid:
HIGH IMPACT ─────────────────────────
│ │
│ MONITOR │ TEST IMMEDIATELY
│ (important but │ (critical risks)
│ probably true) │
│ │
─────┼────────────────────┼───────────
│ │
│ IGNORE │ MONITOR
│ (low risk) │ (uncertain but
│ │ less critical)
│ │
LOW ─────────────────────────────────
LOW CERTAINTY HIGH CERTAINTY
4. Identify Tests (10 min)
For high-risk assumptions: How could we test this cheaply and quickly?
5. Assign & Schedule (5 min)
Who will test what, by when?Example Scenarios
AI will generate scenarios like these, customized for your context:
- Product Launch: Assumptions behind a new feature release timeline
- Market Entry: Assumptions about customer needs in a new segment
- Digital Transformation: Assumptions about team adoption of new tools
- Hiring Plan: Assumptions about talent availability and ramp-up time
- Partnership: Assumptions about a potential strategic alliance
Free to try • No credit card required